Causality of the relationship between wheat prices and economic conditions - an evidence for sustainable development

Abstract

In the recent years agriculture as a branch of economy has been the subject of large transformations. Agricultural holdings have played a very important role for the sustainable socio-economic development. Agriculture is becoming more modern but its contribution to GDP is decreasing. The question as to the connection between the condition of the agricultural market and economy-wide conditions and sustainable development seems to be fundamental. This is the objective of this paper. Based on wheat prices and in the US, the UK, France and Poland in the years 2000-2018, the connection between these variables was determined. The tests for causality were carried, and the auto-regression VAR model was built. The general conclusions are consistent. It is evident that economy-wide conditions indeed depend on the prices of agricultural produce from the previous periods. High prices for agricultural produce and, in particular those of wheat, weaken future economic conditions. This conclusion for Poland and France is strong, while it is weaker for the UK and the US.

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