Forecasting and management of gross domestic product

Abstract

Given that in order to predict the economic growth of a country, the dynamics of its GDP should be considered, and the forecast itself should be made taking into account the difference between actual and estimated figures, the article discusses the problems of GDP management and its optimal distribution. The use of averages to determine economic parameters is also analyzed. The correspondence of the regression formula and the Cauchy boundary value problem is considered. The problem of managing the GDP components to obtain the necessary characteristics of GDP growth is solved using Pontryagin Maximum Principle. As an example, several options of the optimal GDP distribution (constant prices, national currency) for China in 2016–2020 are considered. Numerical results are reported and adjusted for the discount factor. Based on the calculations, it is shown that in 2017–2018, GDP increases and in 2019–2020 it decreases.

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